Line of Scrimmage Podcast – Episode 9: Would You Fire Your Head Coach Mid-Season?

This is episode nine of our podcast. Today you are going to get to play NFL GM, but first quick, new news slash spring league now playing fall ball. The spring league is fall season. That’s right. Fall season is right around the corner and former NFL CFL and XFL players. Along with many college opt-outs will be participating. Who, what is the spring league? The spring league has been operating during the months of March and April, since 2017. This is a pay to play developmental league that offers lives full contact, competitive games for targeted players to gain a lead exposure in response to the challenges created by the pandemic. The 16 league will play a 12 game fall season. They will play the entire season in San Antonio, Texas at the Alamo dome with friends and family allowed to attend the games. And tickets are also being sold to the general public who will participate in the spring league.

Speaker 2 (01:47):

Any player who is currently eligible for the 2021 NFL draft or a previous year’s NFL draft is eligible to sign with a team in the spring lane. Their resume is what they put on tape. All game video will be made available to the CFL and NFL personnel departments. The spring league reports that since 2017 90 players have signed contracts with the NFL and 51 with the CFL that have attended the spring league, a few former NFL XFL CFL coaches will be in the mix, including Jerry Glanville. The majority of players were report to practice at noon on Monday, October 19, with quarterbacks and receivers reporting at noon on October 18, full practice will begin at Tuesday, October 20th, with all position and team meetings being held on zoom. The regular season will spend four weeks and we played between Tuesday, October 27th and Wednesday, November 18th. The exact date of the link championship is yet to be determined, but will be played during the week of November 24th, seven of the 12 regular season games.

Speaker 2 (03:04):

Plus the league championship will be aired on Fox sports. One, which specific games are to be aired have yet to be confirmed. Stay tuned for future updates. The line of scrimmage is powered by ODI football camps. Offense defense gave birth to developmental football camps. 51 years ago in Odie built the model for live full contact, competitive games for targeted football players to gain a lead exposure through their bowl series. 15 years ago, the All-American bowl series of regional invitational games that culminate in a national championship bowl have been announced in players may still be nominated first on the East coast from December 27th through the 30th in Myrtle beach, South Carolina Pelican stadium and in the West, January 26th through the 29th in Arlington, texas@atandtstadiumtonominateaplayergoonthewebtoo-d.com. Tell the coach quick session. Now you’re playing NFL GM. Your team’s not performing to your expectations. Do you make a coaching change now later or never?

Speaker 2 (04:20):

This came out of Houston. The Houston Texans have fired head coach and general manager, bill Bryan, after an O and four star was this smart business. This is your call, and we’ll get back to bill in a minute, but first here’s some facts before you start making decisions. Since 2000, there have been 26 changes during the season of NFL head coaches since 1956, there have been 61 head coach, mid season changes in the CFL. So that ratio is about the same over that span of time. The average one loss record at the time of change for coaches released mid season in the NFL is at 30%. That’s a 30% one loss record at the time of being released mid season in the CFL. That one loss record is 25% for mid season coaching changes with a plus or minus 5% standard margin of error. There’s a similar tolerance in both the NFL and the CFL.

Speaker 2 (05:31):

Now how about after the change? Was there a positive or negative momentum following the change? Well, the average one loss record after the change in the NFL is 36% one loss. That’s a 6% increase in the one loss record. After a mid season change in the CFL, it’s 38%, one loss. That’s a 13% change in the one loss record following a mid season change. So again, with the standard margin of error, the change, the one loss record after the mid season change is very similar for both the NFL and the CFL 36 to 38%, one loss record after the chain. But really the tail tell side is the following season. What’s the one loss record the season after a mid season change in the NFL, the mid season change the next year. The one loss record average is 45%. Now you need to know that a 56% one loss record in the NFL gives you over a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (06:50):

So even after a mid season change, the average NFL team is still more than 10% below. The one loss measurement needed to have greater than 50% chance at the playoffs. Here’s an interesting note, those teams that chose to wait and fire the head coach at the end of the season had a 39% one loss record the following season. That’s right. The teams that made the change mid season had a 6% higher one loss record the next year. Now on the CFL, the one that the loss record the year following a mid season change is 28% and that’s calculated over the last five seasons. So again, in summary, 30% in the NFL mid season change one loss record at the end of the season, following a mid change, 36%, one loss rec and the following year, a 45% one loss record, but that’s still more than 10% below what is needed to have at least a 50% chance that the player now food for thought, you’re the owner or GM that hired the coach.

Speaker 2 (08:08):

How much responsibility is yours? Where does the buck stop? Where did the failure occur? What about accountability or responsibility? To me, accountability is an obligation or a willingness to accept responsibility and to take action. Not only are you willing to say my bad, but you’re going to take action responsibility. On the other hand is the fact of being blamed for something. When somebody is responsible, they’re being blamed for something similar to a wind shot. We’re burning someone at the state is done to take responsibility for the unexplainable or to cover up for the unpleasant. So let’s get back to bill O’Brien, Texas chairman and CEO, Cal McNair sent in a statement, his firing, when bill was Owen for to start the season, he said this about bill O’Brien Bill’s leadership moved our organization forward. As he guided us to four AFC, South division championships, 52 wins and multiple playoff appearances during his tenure.

Speaker 2 (09:13):

This was bill seven season in the previous six. He had five with over nine wins. And the last two seasons, he has a combined record of 21 and 11 that’s, right? He was 21 and 11, and the two seasons prior to being fired after the Oh and four star prior to his arrival to the Texans a year before the Texans were two and 14. And that we know from our previous study, that normally you can expect a 45% one loss record the win. After the chain and bill had a 56%, one loss record. He was more than 10% above at his one loss record. Put him in the range that where he would have at least a 50% chance of making the playoffs. How about this? Since 2002 in the last 18 years, Euston has eight seasons would nine or more wins. And bill Brian has five of those.

Speaker 2 (10:13):

There was a coaching change with Gilt Gary Kubiak after he was 12 and four. And there was a coaching change with bill Brian after he was 10 and six that’s right. Ownership made changes at 12 and four intended, six falling, Oh, seasons ownership made a change both times after Gary Kubiak left the Texans. The next year in Denver, he won 75% of his games. Anyone, the Superbowl who’s responsible who should be accountable. I think Gary and bill were responsible. They were held responsible. They were blamed for something, but I think what’s important is who’s going to be accountable. Who’s willing to accept responsibility, the action necessary for the Texan to move into playoff contention. Thanks for joining me to consider the coaching decisions being made and to discuss the spring fall league, the fall spring league. I mean the spring league, I look forward to talking to you again next week. God bless.